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A few new polls concerning New Hampshire, all three of which get a C or C+ from FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings. This one from UMass Lowell:

  1. Trump 34%
  2. Cruz 13%
  3. Rubio 13%
  4. Kasich 10%
  5. Bush 10%

From Gravis Marketing:

gravis nh

And finally from Emerson College:

  1. Trump 31%
  2. Bush 16%
  3. Kasich 13%
  4. Rubio 12%
  5. Cruz 11%

A little bit of shuffling from places two through five, but essentially the same conclusion: Trump out in front with Rubio, Cruz, Kasich, and Bush about equal. After that it’s a drop to Chris Christie.

Thing is, Gravis wasn’t terribly accurate with their last poll in Iowa:

gravis iowa

Emerson, however, was a lot closer to how things panned out:

  1. Trump 27%
  2. Cruz 26%
  3. Rubio 22%
  4. Huckabee 5%
  5. Bush 4%

I won’t believe a second-place Bush finish in NH until I see it, but my money says unless someone really surges ahead of the pack in second (because the Donald all but has first wrapped up), this isn’t going to affect delegate count all that much, at least not for those trailing Trump.