, , , , , ,

This Washington Post/ABC poll about an election redo has been passed around as though it were significant:

While just 4 percent of Trump’s supporters say they would back someone else if there was a redo of the election, fully 15 percent of Clinton supporters say they would ditch her.

Meaning that hypothetically, Trump would beat Clinton in a match-up 43% to 40%.

But I can think of a few reasons why Clinton voters would defect in hindsight and Trump voters wouldn’t. The big one is that Clinton lost and Trump won, so unless any disaffected Trump supporter is willing to admit they were wrong, it’s going to be a small number. Clinton voters, on the other hand, now know they had a candidate that didn’t win, so why do again what didn’t work the first time?

The more significant poll is this one (from Fox News of all places) because it’s asking a better question:

fox 100 days

The problem with asking anyone whether they’d vote for Clinton (again or for the first time) is that she’s Hillary Clinton; beyond her diehard supporters, she sits in the minds of voters as either a defeated candidate whom the party needs to move past, or the horrible anathema they’ve always believed her to be (courtesy of outlets like Fox News). Asking whether voters would vote for Trump or literally anyone else reveals truer feelings. Still, it’s a bit much to jump to pundit-ish conclusions like the insipid Matthew Dowd:

Right, that his base still approves of everything he does 100% and what’s left of the sane world despises him and what he stands for. That’s not new. Trump came into the White House with a 45% disapproval rating:

gallup 4 27

So things have only gotten marginally worse for Trump, numbers-wise. So no, a couple polls don’t really reveal anything we can’t learn elsewhere about Trump’s first 100 days or about the 2020 election. And I don’t want to talk about the 2020 election right now. It’s only been 100 days.